Episode 1497: Season Preview Series: Padres and White Sox
Date February 7, 2020 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about probability, the baseball significance of a Super Bowl comeback, and whether win expectancy stats are more useful for fans during or after a game (featuring a cameo from Meg Rowley, who sort of settles the debate). Then Ben and Sam preview the 2020 Padres with MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (23:47), and the 2020 White Sox (58:32) with The Athletic’s James Fegan. Topics * San Diego Padres preview with AJ Cassavell * How close were the Padres to getting Mookie Betts? * Padres' main competitive rivals * Competition for free agents * Padres bad second half in 2019 * Will there be offensive regression for Fernando Tatis Jr.? * Fernando Tatis Jr.'s defensive ceiling * Trading for Tommy Pham and the impact on Wil Myers * Garrett Richards * Eric Hosmer * Kirby Yates and Padres bullpen * Jayce Tingler * Petco Park's park factors * Austin Hedges' offensive upside * Chicago White Sox preview with James Fegan * White Sox busy offseason * Building on the previous three seasons * Rick Renteria's tenure as manager * Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson * Falling behind on player development strategies * White Sox low walk rate in 2019 * Lucas Giolito * Michael Kopech's expected workload * Luis Robert * Nick Madrigal * Nomar Mazara and Jose Abreau Intro Tall Tall Trees, "Expectations" Interstitials The Cranberries, "Chocolate Brown" Bombadil, "Goodwill Socks" Outro Super Furry Animals, "White Socks/Flip Flops" Banter * Ben says that he, Sam, and Meg plan to again draft the most fun teams heading into the 2020 season. They previously did this for the 2019 season in Episode 1360. * Ben and Sam discuss a tweet from FiveThirtyEight during the Super Bowl that calculated the 49ers (who lost to the Chiefs) win expectancy at almost 94%. * They find themselves on "polar opposites" of the question of whether or not you would want to know win expectancy during a game. Sam says he only finds it interesting during a game while Ben would only want to see it afterwards. * Ben and Sam call Meg to get her opinion, which she notes will upset both hosts. Meg says if she is watching as a fan (Seahawks or Mariners) she does not want to see the information in real time. But otherwise she is fine with having that information. Notes * The Padres explored trading Wil Myers, prospects, and cash for Mookie Betts but the Red Sox insisted on a deal that would also include David Price. * AJ doesn't think that the Padres would finish within 10 wins of the Dodgers even if they had Mookie Betts. * AJ mentions he listened to Episode 1489 and that Fernando Tatis Jr. would get his vote for Most Exciting Player. * About one-third of MLB teams have new managers this year. * AJ says that when the fences were moved in at Petco Park it became far less extreme, but it still skews as a pitcher's park. * AJ predicts the Padres will win 81 games. * James equates the job Rick Renteria has had managing the last three years to bringing a knife to a gun fight. * Last year Yolmer Sanchez led the White Sox batters with 44 walks. * James predicts that the White Sox will win 86 games. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1497: Season Preview Series: Padres and White Sox * FiveThirtyEight tweet about Super Bowl win expectancy * ESPN's Super Bowl win probability graph * Fernando Tatis Jr., Defensive Conundrum by Ben Clemens * What the White Sox’s next stage of player development looks like by James Fegan * Will Nick Stick? Dissecting Madrigal’s Unprecedented Profile by Baseball Prospectus Category:Guest Episodes Category:Episodes Category:Season Preview Series